This assessment explores risks of mass atrocities in South Sudan due to increasing violence, the detention of senior officials, lagging progress in the implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) of 2018, and regional spillover from the violent conflict in Sudan. Compounding these drastically deteriorating conditions, South Sudan’s first elections since independence, originally scheduled for December 2024, have been postponed until December 2026. This assessment identifies plausible atrocity scenarios, key indicators to monitor, and recommended prevention and response options for the United States Government and the international community.

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