Trouble Has Horns to Hold: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Northern Ethiopia

This atrocity risk assessment, authored by Ethiopian and American atrocity prevention experts, analyzes worst-case but high probability scenarios in northern Ethiopia, including Tigray and its borderlands with Eritrea, Afar, and Amhara. If these scenarios occur, they will likely precipitate mass violence against civilians while also causing a widespread regional crisis. It also identifies central risk factors, key actors, triggers, and resiliencies that could affect the course of conflict.

Policy and Advocacy, Policy ActionMaria TataDecember 12, 2025AfP, 2025, PPWG

PPWG: Atrocity Risk Assessment: South Sudan

This assessment explores risks of mass atrocities in South Sudan due to increasing violence, the detention of senior officials, lagging progress in the implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) of 2018, and regional spillover from the violent conflict in Sudan. Compounding these drastically deteriorating conditions, South Sudan’s first elections since independence, originally scheduled for December 2024, have been postponed until December 2026. This assessment identifies plausible atrocity scenarios, key indicators to monitor, and recommended prevention and response options for the United States Government and the international community.

Policy and Advocacy, Policy ActionMaria TataMay 27, 2025AfP, 2025, PPWG

PPWG: Sudan Atrocity Determination Letter

Dear Secretary Blinken,

We, the undersigned organizations, write with deep concern about the ongoing and increasing atrocities in Sudan, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, and potentially genocide. In December 2023, we welcomed your determination that members of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had committed war crimes, and that the RSF and allied militias committed crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing since the conflict broke out in April 2023. Now, in light of the alarming developments over the last year, we urge you to issue an updated atrocity determination for Sudan and take concrete actions to protect civilians and prevent further atrocities in line with the Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act, the U.S. Strategy to Anticipate, Prevent, and Respond to Atrocities, the Women, Peace, and Security Act, the U.S. Strategy and Action Plan on Women, Peace, and Security, and other U.S. prevention-oriented laws and policies. An updated atrocity determination should include war crimes and crimes against humanity perpetrated by both the SAF and RSF, as well as assess whether any of the crimes committed to-date constitute genocide.

Policy Action, Policy and AdvocacyMaria TataDecember 4, 2024AfP, PPWG

PPWG: Atrocities Risk Assessment: Democratic Republic of the Congo

The assessment seeks to identify the dynamics that underpin ongoing or potential atrocities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), plausible atrocity scenarios, and key indicators to monitor, as well as recommend prevention and response options for the U.S. Government.

Policy Action, Policy and AdvocacyMaria TataDecember 15, 2023AfP, PPWG, 2023

PPWG: West Bank Atrocities Risk Assessment

The assessment seeks to identify the dynamics that could give rise to potential atrocities in the West Bank, a set of plausible atrocity scenarios, and key indicators to monitor, as well as recommend prevention and response options for the U.S. Government.

Policy Action, Policy and AdvocacyMaria TataDecember 11, 2023AfP, 2023, PPWG

PPWG: Sudan Atrocity Determination Letter

Dear Secretary Blinken, We, the undersigned organizations, write with deep concern about the ongoing and increasing atrocities in Sudan, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, and potentially genocide. We urge the United States to issue an atrocity determination for Sudan and take concrete actions to protect civilians and prevent further atrocities in line with the Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act, the U.S. Strategy to Anticipate, Prevent, and Respond to Atrocities, the recently released U.S. Strategy and Action Plan on Women, Peace, and Security, and other U.S. prevention-oriented laws and policies.

Policy Action, Policy and AdvocacyMaria TataNovember 30, 2023AfP, PPWG

Atrocity Prevention and Protection Tools to Address the Crisis in Sudan

Recommendations include documentation and accountability, support for internally displaced persons and refugees, short-term protection priorities, diplomatic tools, multilateral engagement, and peace process.

Policy and Advocacy, Policy ActionMaria TataJuly 27, 2023AfP, PPWG, 2023